Monday, June 3, 2013

Advanced stats

There are a lot of advanced stats out there.  SABRmetrics, or whatever.  Listen, this all might just be coming from a place where I have a lack of understanding on the subject, but I don't really put a whole lot of stock in advanced stats.  That might sound weird, but I just think there are other ways of determining if a guy is a good baseball player or not.  Like, oh I don't know, watching a game.  I'm way more of an eyeball test kind of guy.  Does he look alright?  Then he's alright, isn't he? Guys get hot, guys get cold.  It comes and goes.  Everyone goes through this. I'll tell you right now, after writing this mini rant that I've been planning in my head, I'm going to go and search on Google "how to read and decipher advanced stats" and see if I can change my own mind on the subject.  But as of right now, I think fancy stats are only good for three things.  Number one is obviously fantasy baseball.  It's good to know if a guy is playing over his head or underachieving compared to what he usually does so you can win your fantasy league.  But this reason directly leads me to the number two and three reasons for using fancy stats for baseball is to sound smart, and to be right.  For me, I don't put much stock in being right all the time.  I've lost hundreds of arguments with my wife because I just don't care if I'm right.  She has to be right, it's in her nature.  It's part of what makes her special because she's determined to be right and smart and respected.  Me, I don't care.  I just want to get along with everyone and have a conversation about baseball.  Taht's why this blog exists.  I'm not going to (be able) to tell you that Tyler Lyons has a stranded runner rate of 91% because I looked it up.  I'll tell you that because the Sleeper and the Bust podcast told me that.  I had already dropped him anyway, but that helps the decision feel like the right one.  Is that a fancy stat?  Not really, that's a pretty regular stat, and I probably would have been able to tell you this stat if I had actually watched the Cardinals play for the past 15 days.

What I have watched is Atlanta Braves baseball, and I don't need fancy stats to tell you that Justin Upton had a terrible May, but his numbers don't look all that bad because he had an amazing April.  I know this because I've only missed a couple Braves games all year.  I know this team.  I don't know Cardinals very well.  I don't know Astros or Mariners or Yankees or Angels or really most of the league unless they've played the Braves.  I haven't watched any of their games more than an inning or two this year.  This is where I need people that read into fancy stats to tell me what they're doing.  Why do I run a baseball blog, anyway?

That brings me to my final point here.  What does advanced stats do for me as a fan?  Not as a fantasy baseball team owner, but as a fan of the Atlanta Braves and of baseball watching in general, how does knowing Dan Uggla's BABIP (if I knew what it was) change the way I feel every time he strikes out or flies out or grounds out or walks....which is all he does...Or hit a home run.  If Dan Uggla could just start hitting doubles I'd be impressed.  But he just doesn't.  And I don't need to look at any type of advanced stat to know he's not had a good year.  Knowing advanced stats does very, very little for me as a fan watching games.  What I care about is wins, strikeouts, hits, home runs, web gems, double plays, no-hitters, disputed calls, weird pitching wind-ups, weird pitching deliveries, 17 inning games, position players pitching, catchers throwing their masks off to make a catch on a popup behind the plate, "is a hit or is it an error?" yada yada yada.  Fancy stats are for people that don't watch baseball games.  That's my conclusion.  If that's the way you want to experience this game, then go for it.  Do whatever you want, but I'll just watch the game.  

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