Make Love Not WAR (wins above replacement)

So this morning I learned what Wins Above Replacement, or WAR is all about.  I thought it was probably stupid based upon it's name, and after actually looking into what it calculates, I would say it's not as stupid as I thought it would be, but it's still a rather useless statistic.  So basically it measures how much better a player is better than an average AAA-level or bench player?  That's stupid.  Number one, not all AAA players are average.  Sometimes a guy comes up and rips it up because he's pumped about playing in the majors.  It measures how valuable a player is to the team.  Like as if to say "without him, we'd be stuck with this jabroni over here and we'd be screwed."  Okay, fine, but if you watched a baseball game once in a while, you would see a guys value using your own two eyes, no?  Why not just look at his ERA, or even his SIERA?  Wins?  K's? I get that WAR is a composite score of a dudes value, but it doesn't tell me much.  So Cliff Lee and Clayton Kershaw have really good WARs?  NO SHIT.  Just look at any of their regular, standard numbers and you could gather that yourself.  Or better yet, watch a Phillies or Dodgers game.  That's how I figured it out.  I don't need WAR and I will probably forever roll my eyes whenever I hear or read anyone mention it.

I'm stuck in this spot between embracing advanced stats and stepping back and realizing that advanced stats are clearly for people that don't watch baseball.  I don't watch Rockies games, so I can learn how Michael Cuddyer is doing by reading about his WAY inflated BABIP this morning.  Makes sense to me, because he's Michael Cuddyer, so I knew something was up.  There's no way the Michael Cuddyer I remember could be putting up these kind of numbers without some luck.  But I imagine if I watched a few Rockies games, I could tell you he's on a hot streak right now, and baseball has this wonderful thing called Regression to the Mean, where every player either gradually gets better or worse over the course of a career.  Any jumps in productivity means their slumping or on a hot streak.  Many, many players throughout the season and throughout the history of baseball go up and down throughout their careers.  Things like BABIP help to show you when that's happening so you don't have to watch baseball, because who would ever want to do that?

Starters and What to Watch For, 6-29-13 MLB Preview

I hope you guys managed to figure out who was starting all the games in the MLB the past two days without me.  Somehow, I know most of you struggled to figure out who would be the best matchups for each day, but honesly, I have company coming this weekend, so I had to spend a lot of time deep cleaning the apartment.  Also, I find it hard to sit down and type when my wife is home, and she took the last two days off work, so I was busy.  Is that okay with you?  It better be...

Here's today's starters.

As you can see, a full slate on a Saturday, per usual.  The trick is looking at these wonderful matchups and figuring out which ones are the ones to watch.  I've spotted a few, but I've not gone through all the trouble to figure out which ones are the most interesting besides the obvious choices...

So, the Safety Squeeze Pitching Matchup of the Day ™ ™is...

Cliff Lee and Hyun-Jin Ryu...wow way to branch out, Blogger.  Yeah, just take two guys who were already featured here this past week and rehash that shit.  Well, let me tell you, it's the best matchup.  The Dodgers got housed at home last night by these Phillies, but today is a new day.  The only reason that Dodger Stadium didn't empty out faster than **insert pop culture reference about substance abuse here** is because there was a fireworks show after the game.  Or, as Vin Scully would have had you believe if you were listening to his broadcast last night, to witness one more at bat of Yasiel Puig.  Ha, no Vin, you're the best, but they wanted to see the fireworks they already paid for.  Should be a good one.  

Another matchup that caught my eye is Chris Archer and the Rays against the Tigers and Justin Verlander.  Verlander's stats aren't that far out of line from what he's done throughout his career except his BABIP.  I expect Verlander to turn that around, as BABIP is a determination of luck, and his BABIP is elevated.  Once that BABIP evens out, expect Verlander to appear to be the guy he used to be, which he technically already is.  He's just been unlucky. Plus, it's not like the Tigers have the greatest defense.  I imagine a lot of the line drives that are being hit off him would be caught if the defense behind him was better.  

Okay, that's all.  Go watch the Tigers Rays game then the Phillies Dodgers game late, and you'll be a happy baseball fan of you make these choices.  

Schedule and Starters for MLB 6-26-13

Just to let you know, I'm afraid to look up yesterday's results, because I'm watching last night's Braves game and I'm currently in the 7th inning, so I don't want the result to be spoiled.  I have no idea how things went around the league last night.  I hope you understand.

So today is a Wednesday, so that means day games!  There are two early start day games, The Jays and Rays, and the Twins and Marlins.  Pretty weak, but once this Braves game ends, I'll probably turn on the Jays Rays game because I haven't seen much of Tampa this season, and I need to see what's up with those guys.

Without anymore delay, here's today's schedule, with starters...

And now, your Safety Squeeze Pitching Matchup of the Day ™ ™

Tough call today, as there are a lot of weird matchups.  Mike Minor is pitching, but it's against Luis Mendoza, so that's not special, in my opinion.

I don't know, the one that stood out to me, I suppose is Roy Oswalt against John Lackey.  Lackey has been effective this season, and I'm curious how Oswalt will preform this year.  His first outing, he struck out 11, but only lasted five innings because of it.  He also gave up seven hits.  I have always liked the guy, so I want him to do well.  The Red Sox are no easy task, so I'll be interested to see how he does tonight.  John Lackey on the other hand comes in with a 3.03 ERA, which is nice.  He'll keep the Sox in any game he pitches.

Also around the league today, Tim Lincecum pitches in LA against Clayton Kershaw, who despite a wonderful 2.06 ERA, his record is only 5-5, causing fantasy owners heads to explode when wins is one of the categories you need to be successful.  He hasn't won a game in over a month.  Blame the Dodgers here.

the battle of the 6-6 pitchers takes place in Milwaukee as Scott Feldman and Yovani Gallardo square off.  Gallardo has a 4.09 ERA for the season, but a 1.67 ERA in June, so he's been much better as of late.  The Brewers aren't going to get a whole lot done as a team while looking up at the Pirates, Reds and Cardinals, but they've played a lot better lately.  The Cubs looked like they were getting it together back in May, but they're still not very good.  The Brewers smoked the Cubs 9-3 last night, and I sort of expect a similar result today.  Not sure why I'm talking about this one, to be honest...

That's all I'm gonna type now, so enjoy the 2007 World Series rematch tonight in Boston.  That's the one to watch.  

SS Pitching Matchup of the Day! 6/25/13

I'm still trying to settle on what to title these daily posts...anyway.

I don't have a lot of time today, as I was busy playing Monopoly on my iPad with my sister in law all afternoon, but here's today's pitching matchups around the league.

As you can see, quite the opposite of yesterday's schedule, as everyone is in action tonight.  

Now, for the Safety Squeeze Pitching Matchup of the Day™ ™

For me, it's got to be Chris Sale against Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler was outstanding in his major league debut last week against the Braves and Chris Sale, though he doesn't have the record to show it, is still heading towards being one of the elite pitchers.  I don't have time to explain why this is going to be a good one, but just trust me.  Chris Sale hasn't won a game since May 17th, five weeks ago.  He's still good, though.

One more thing, how many times does a starter dazzle everyone in his debut, and even for the first few times out, and regress back to where he's supposed to be?  Scouting reports.  Once guys see a pitcher a few times, they learn how to hit them.  Take a look at Barry Zito and Dontrelle Willis.  Perfect examples of that.  Some guys never regress, and only progress, like Verlander, but most of the time, a rookie comes up and looks outstanding, then regresses.  Happens all the time.  Anyway, that's what I expect out of Wheeler.  I imagine Wheeler will dominate again tonight, mostly because it's against the White Sox, but I also expect him to get rocked a few times as the season progresses.  I've seen this movie before.  

Anyway, I gotta jet.  Have a good night.  Go baseball.  

Starters for 6/24/13 Around the MLB

There are only four games on the schedule today, which has to be one of the lightest schedule days of the entire season.  That's good because game six of the Stanley Cup Final is tonight.  Got to be watching some hockey tonight.  BUT, if you don't like hockey so much, or if maybe you are just not into this final because you don't like the teams or whatever reason you can come up with, there's some ball to be played tonight.  Here's the starting pitchers for this evening.

I had originally planned on the advanced stats post from yesterday on Cliff Lee instead of Jhoulys Chacin, but when I found that interesting stat, I had to change course.  I spent a lot of time scouring over Cliff Lee's stats yesterday and found them to remarkably average.  I mean, average for his standards and for the league in general.  He's doing nothing out of ordinary to indicate anything other than the usual success for Lee for the remainder of the season, of course if he can remain healthy.  The health factor goes for all players, that goes without question.

Anyway so I have to decide which of these pitching matchups I'm going to declare the Match Up Of The Day ™ ™

I'm going to choose the Giants and Dodgers game form good old Dodgers stadium late tonight.  Partly because perhaps after the hockey game ends, I can turn this on and watch.  Madison Bumgarner is the future of that pitching staff in San Francisco.  Throught equal amount of starts to begin a career, Bumgarner's stats are shockingly similar to the highly regarded lefty in Los Angeles, Clayton Kershaw.  Kershaw has been around longer, so his numbers are better, but if you dial it back to what he was doing when he was at the spot that Bumgarner is at, they're very similar.  One would tend to believe that Madison Bumgarner will soon be recoginized as the next great lefty pitching in California, if he's not there with all the fans around the league just yet.  As a Braves fan, I've watched him pitch twice this season against the Braves, and he was just about unhittable in those starts.  I'm not sure what he's looked like in his other starts, but judging by the fact that he's actually lost four games this year would indicate that he's just super good against Atlanta's lineup.  If he pitched like he did against the Braves all the time, you might as well rename the trophy after him instead of Cy Young.

His opponent (use a Howard Finkel voice for this), weighing 255 lbs, from Incheon, Korea HYUN-JIN RYUUUUUUUUUU.

But seriously, Ryu has an amazing Haduken, but I've always perfered Ken, probably because I'm a white American male.  I watched Ryu pitch last wednesday against the Yankees in a day game and he was okay.  Not lights out, but he was effective.  6.0 IP, 5H, 3ER, 2BB, 4K and took the loss.  Hiroki Kuroda was just better that day.  Also, Ichiro had a good game.  It was a super Asian afternoon in the Bronx.  Ryu will be seeking his first win since he beat the the Angels Angels back on May 28th.  His 2.57 ERA looks good.

Also, along with the pretty good pitching match up, it's always nice to watch the Giants and Dodgers play.  There is certainly no love lost here, as these two have been rivals for over 100 years.  Also, with the Dodgers already being involved in two bench-clearing brawls this season, that might happen, too.  Oh and that hot-head Yasiel Puig just might be a shit-stirrer again.  I wouldn't put it past him.

Also tonght, Esmil Rogers, who is so good they named the Blue Jays stadium after him, will try to keep the Blue Jays' 11 game winning streak alive against the Rays in Tampa.  Jeremy Hellickson gets the start for the Rays.  Hellickson beat the Red Sox last Wednesday, but he gave up seven hits over six innings.  I'll take the Jays.

And I suppose I have to mention that Ubaldo Jimenez starts for the Indians against the Orioles and Zach Britton. Here you have two second place teams trying to gain some ground on their idle division leaders. I'm sure this interests someone out there.

So enjoy the hockey tonight.  It could be the last of it until the fall.  And if you don't, you're a crazy person.  Watch baseball tomorrow.  That's the beauty of the game.  You can watch it tomorrow. It's okay.

The Detroit Tigers are the Taco Bell/Pizza Hut Combo of Baseball

I mean think about it. Some items are a real value, while some items are pretty expensive. And they're both looking for closers. 

  

Dan Haren "Physically, I'm okay" But Placed on the DL Anyway

Yesterday, I remarked on Twitter that I had watched 8 and a half innings of a Nationals Rockies game, and that I have a sickness, an illness, that makes me watch baseball games that I shouldn't care about, or perhaps  didn't even care about a few weeks ago.  Anyway, as I watched, Dan Haren was getting lit up, and I predicted he was injured.  I've suspected he was injured for a while, because I heard his fastball velocity was down, but according to his FanGraphs pitchfx, even though his fastball velocity has dropped every year he's pitched in the majors, there wasn't a major drop like I was expecting to find.  Anyway, he's hurt, but if you read his quote, it sounds more like managment is telling him he's hurt, but want to sit him for a few starts because they can't afford to keep throwing out a liability like Dan Haren every five days.

"There's aches and pains." he said on Sunday, "nothing I haven't pitched through in the past.  Physically, I'm okay."  It's easy to say he has a "stiff shoulder" because what major league pitcher doesn't have a stiff shoulder the day after he pitches in June?